Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Kevan Sadigh's avatar

I canceled health insurance about 4 years ago. One of the best decisions I ever made

Expand full comment
Taylor Pearson's avatar

Thanks for writing this Nat, very helpful overview.

Thinking of making the switch myself and working through it. Dropping a thought here with the hope someone else knows more than I do about it.

You noted in the black swan risk about them shutting down or not being able to make payments. I believe there is some history of this with these organizations. Liberty Health Share shut down and didn't pay out claims I think in 2020 and Trinity similarly did.

As I understand it, there was some fraud (or close to fraud behavior like spending contributions on things other than medical cost sharing).

Ultimately, I'm not sure how to underwrite this for a private, unregulated company. I love the dashboard showing they are paying things out, but that doesn't really give you a sense of the backstop.

I get that you could switch back to an ACA plan, but my understanding is that CrowdHealth going out of business would not be a qualifying event so you're waiting until open enrollment.

The concerning scenario is they go out of business or stop paying claims in March and you're basically uninsured for 9 months until Open Enrollment hits again. If you were already comfortable self-insuring then maybe not an issue.

In my mind, health insurance's purpose is to help an individual turn an uncapped, but diversifiable risk into a capped risk by pooling with other individuals. The odds of getting cancer at 40 are low, but it would be devastating financially so spreading that risk around is a win, win. The traditional model does this but pools you with a lot of higher risk people (among other issues).

It's fair to say that insurers can also deny claims anyway if they want, but there is some regulator body to appeal to and I believe most states have guaranty funds to backstop them.

This seems like the most critical issue, but I really have no idea how to underwrite it. If CrowdHealth was larger and had a publicly audited backstop of some sort, that would make me a lot more comfortable. Most anecdotal stories from both camps are good, it's all about what happens in the tails and I'm not sure how to evaluate that.

Expand full comment
19 more comments...

No posts